With my larger holdings, I manually summarise the transcripts from earnings calls and investor days. Obviously it would be quicker to get AI to do it, but I just don’t think you get the nuance that way, or the same clarity on what is changing over time and what isn’t.
Here are my summaries of the last Brookfield investor day transcripts. I hope they’re useful.
About this blog: I have been investing for 25 years, professionally and personally. I look for stocks that have a high probability of compounding at 15% for at least 5 years with limited downside. I write these stocks up on my blog. You can find more about me, my philosophy, my mental models, and my portfolio structure on my site.
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BN - real estate and Wealth Management are huge opportunities
19% CAGR over 30 years, or 27x.
Plan value today is $180bn or $68 per share. This is 16x average annual earnings over the next 5y and 10x average annual DE.
“I’m quite confident we can sell all the businesses for probably premiums to those numbers.”
$82bn is public holdings.
$12bn is funds managed by BAM, compounding at 15%. Will realise net $5bn over 5 years.
$34bn is PV of carry, valued as net unrealised carry + annual targeted carry x10. (They also do a DCF which produces the same result at an 8.5% discount rate.) They’ll convert $6bn to cash over the next 3 years and $25bn over the next 10, net.
$26bn is real estate.
$26bn is BWS at 15x annualised DE.
Expect 25% DE and 16% plan value CAGR for next 5 years.
5y DEPS target $6.95.
Will generate $53bn of cash flow over the next 5 years, I think including asset sales. $28bn will go to dividends and to grow BWS, $25bn is free to be reinvested.