April roundup

What I bought, sold, wrote, and read this month

About this blog: I have been investing for 25 years, professionally and personally. I look for stocks that have a high probability of compounding at 15% for at least 5 years with limited downside. I write these stocks up on my blog. You can find more about me, my philosophy, my mental models, and my portfolio structure on my site.

This email is a summary of my activity this month.

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Trades

• Sold a tracker in BMW3. Can’t get comfortable with Chinese competition and the commoditisation of AV vehicles.

• Bought a tracker in Goodwin $GDWN.LN after a massive spike and drawdown. Family run compounder in high-end steel foundry.

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Articles I wrote

• Can Microsoft Compete? Part 1 - revisiting a stock I have held since 2010.

• Millrose Properties. Don’t like the risk/reward one bit.

• Uber Freight. Counterpoint to the SaveInvestLive article linked below.

• Brookfield 4q call summaries. Done by hand, not by AI!

• Howard Hughes Holdings - shaping up to be a good compounder, if you can live with the fees.

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What I found interesting this month

• Alpha Engines by Gianni on Millrose Properties - the bull case to my bear.

• Alexander Steinberg on Howard Hughes, Progressive and Fairfax, and PE-backed life insurers.

• Private Debt News on the other side of the private credit coin.

• Scolopax on offshore drillers.

• Simon Young on Goodwin.

• James Emanuel on how dividends destroy shareholder value.

• Crack The Market on nuclear.

• LongYield on cheap Chinese cars - relevant to my Uber thesis.

• Chris Yardy on how to think about volatility and the alt managers.

• Adamas Research (João) on moats in luxury.

• SaveInvestLive on Uber’s logistics platform.

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Thanks for reading - and please get in touch if you have questions.

Pete

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